Any objective person realizes that Palin’s performance in the campaign so far has been dismal (see Katie Couric interview for details). But here’s the thing: most voters aren’t objective. As argued convincingly in this salon.com article, the Palin pick was never about picking someone qualified to be Vice President – it’s about bringing back the culture war.
Given Palin’s poor performance so far, it’s not surprising that the liberal pundits are predicting that she will embarrass the McCain campaign in the debate. More importantly, Biden is an experienced and knowledgeable debater who would be a tough opponent for even a strong VP nominee. He should be able to blow her off the stage, right?
Well, that’s exactly what I’m afraid of. Biden could drown Palin with statistics and exploit her mistakes, allowing him to “win” the debate. But the people who like Palin don’t like her because of her debate skills; they like her folksy charm, her values, and the fact that she seems like them. For the conservative base, Biden dominating the debate would just look like an elitist liberal jerk beating up on a wholesome small-town girl.
I expect the Obama campaign knows this and Biden has been told to hold back. On the other side, McCain's advisers have been working with Palin and they know allowing her to speak her mind is dangerous. Bottom-line? Don't expect Biden's extemporaneous honesty or Palin's Red-State charm to make appearances. This debate will probably involve both candidates sticking to their talking points, and neither side will be popping champagne afterwards.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/us/politics/30palin.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
http://www.startribune.com/nation/29862744.html?page=1&c=y
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Pman seems to have substantial foresight, as the vice-presidential debate did showcase an emphasis on policy. Palin's use of charm and her appeal to the common person also played a factor in her performance. An interesting point is that Biden frequently focused his answers on McCain. Of course the answers to the posed questions involve policy, and voters care more about the presidential candidate's opinions on policy, but blatantly referencing McCain so often probably caused Biden to appear to condescend Palin. It is as if Biden considers sparring with Palin to be not worth the effort. Granted, Palin does not have enough of a track record for Biden to criticize, but Palin's projection as the down to earth hockey mom still gets a boost because, as Pman said, she seems to be ignored by the elitist liberal.
Nevertheless, Palin was certainly impressive tonight considering the mockery that has been made of her in the past week.
Not so fast with the champagne, Pman; in the past few days alone, the Democrats have gained an unmistakable advantage in the presidential race. As Adam Nagourney writes in the NYT online, Obama has not only gained a lead nationally, he has pulled ahead in key swing states, forcing McCain to fight for ordinarily red states like Missouri. Obama has been much more successful at fundraising than his opponent, and recent economic woes have certainly reduced confidence in the already-battered Republican Party.
And, furthermore, the VP debate* will probably work in favor of Obama. Eleanor Swift describes in Newsweek the "everywoman show" VP nominee Sarah Palin employs; the Alaskan governor asked if she can call opponent Biden "Joe," referenced hockey moms, and even winked at the camera. But, in light of the serious issues that face the American public - the War, for example, or the tanking economy - her spunk and cheer may not be enough; they might, even, be out of place. Furthermore, while she claims that she and McCain are politicians who will be clear with the American people, she answered most questions directed at her during the debate with vague generalities and repetitive claims. ("We're mavericks!")
Senator Biden was sharp. But as Nagourney writes, "Short of a complete bravura performance...or a devastating error by the mistake-prone Mr. Biden... there might have been little Ms. Palin could have done to help Mr. McCain."
* occurred in my hometown
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