Saturday, October 4, 2008

The Death Penalty: An Economic Analysis

The death penalty is an extremely divisive issue, shown by the fact that there is no clear consensus on its moral validity even in the United States; 34 states permit the death penalty while 16 do not. However, putting aside the moral implications of the death penalty, there is substantial evidence to show that it is economically inefficient, and wrong.

One could argue that the death penalty, viewed through an economic lens, is justifiable because the death penalty acts as a strong deterrent. In the words of Gary Becker, an economist from the University of Chicago: "[f]or each murderer not given capital punishment, approximately three generally innocent victims would die. This argument means that the government would indirectly be 'taking' many lives if it did not use capital punishment. The lives so taken are usually much more worthwhile than that of the murderers who would be spared execution. For this reason, the State has an obligation to use capital punishment if such punishment significantly reduces the number of murders and saves lives of innocent victims."

Let us approach the issue in economic terms as Professor Becker does. Though I tend to doubt his statement about the deterrent effect of the death penalty, assuming it is accurate, I think his economic analysis fails to take into account a fundamental economic concept: opportunity cost. In Becker’s analysis, through the death penalty, society saves 3 innocent lives as 3 potential murders are deterred. However, the cost of executing a criminal is not $0. Indeed, recent research has shown that, due to the mandatory appeals process that can—and often does—take decades to complete, the incremental cost of executing a person compared to keeping that person in prison for life is, in New York and Florida, approximately $23 million (not to mention that the $23 million will grow in decades to come). I don't know how to put a precise value on a human life. Maybe no one does (though there have been impressive attempts by well-known Princeton economics professors). However, I would guess that the $23 million saved by not executing each prisoner could be spent on a number of extremely worthwhile projects such as funding preventative medicines and medical procedures or cleaning up toxic waste sites that could be shown to save far more than the 3 lives that Becker claims are saved by each execution. In economic terms, therefore, the death penalty costs our society lives many more lives than it saves.

There are other fundamental economic problems with the pro-death penalty position, most notably the probability that in a small but meaningful number of cases, the death penalty results in the execution by the State of innocent people. Amnesty International lays claim to the fact that there have been, since 1973, 125 people released from death row due to “evidence of their wrongful convictions”. However, the loss of the lives of these innocent people is real as compared to the theoretical deterrent savings of lives through executions.

The death penalty is a controversial and emotional issue. If one removes him or herself, however, from instinctual reaction, it is clear that, economically at least, the death penalty simply does not make sense.

Sources:

Ashenfelter, Orley. "Measuring the Value of a Statistical Life: Problems and Prospects," The Economic Journal, Vol. 116, March 2006.
http://www.stateline.org/live/ViewPage.action?siteNodeId=136&languageId=1&contentId=25995

http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/costs-death-penalty

http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/archives/2005/12/

http://www.amnestyusa.org/Fact_Sheets/The_Death_Penalty_Claims_Innocent_Lives/page.do?id=1101086&n1=3&n2=28&n3=99

4 comments:

Baracrates said...

I think that this is quite a compelling argument; I've never heard of the death penalty approached from such an standpoint. And while I agree that the death penalty should not be used, I don't quite subscribe to parts of your argument. Gary Becker used economic tools to analyze the death penalty in a moral sense, not in a financial one. I think the equation both becomes far too complex to get a definable answer once one adds in every possible factor, as you begin too, as well as the fact that even though your insertion of the financial opportunity cost makes sense, I would argue that any moral argument far outweighs saving some money. I understand where you're coming from; you may be right that we could put this money to better use, and thus save more lives. But, for people who believe in the death penalty, the implementation of the death penalty, and the profound impact that has on our societies identity and the way it's citizens view their safety, would far outstrip the case for economic efficiency. Great post, though!

Pman said...

Agreed: this is a compelling argument. One line I've heard from death penalty supporters goes something like "Why should we support a murderer with three meals a day and a place to live when we could just do to him what he did to his victim." These people are incredulous when they find out that the death penalty actually costs more than supporting inmates for life. Your economic analysis is interesting because it turns the traditional deterrence logic on its head.

Of course, I think the deterrence argument was broken in the first place. The statistics are unclear because it is extremely difficult to isolate the death penalty as a variable. Also, the death penalty is applied so haphazardly that it is difficult to see how it would be a clear deterrent. People who commit similar crimes can receive very different penalties, bringing up the issue of racial and class prejudices. Since there are no clear benefits to a death penalty, I don't think society can justify institutionalizing executions.

dudleysharp said...

You left out some important issues:

Cost Comparisons: Death Penalty Cases Vs Equivalent Life Sentence Cases
Dudley Sharp, Justice Matters, contact info below

In comparing the cost of death penalty cases to other sentences, the studies are woefully incomplete.
 
Generally, such studies have one or more of the following problems.
 
1) Most studies exclude the cost of geriatric care, recently found to be $60,000-$80,000/inmate/yr. A significant omission from life sentence costs.
 
2) All studies exclude the cost savings of the death penalty, which is the ONLY sentence which allows for a plea bargain to a maximum life sentence. Such plea bargains accrue as a cost benefit to the death penalty, such benefit being the cost of trials and appeals for every such plea bargain. The cost savings would be for trial and appeals, estimated at $500,000 to $1 million, which would accrue as a cost benefit/credit to the death penalty.
 
Depending upon jurisdiction, this MIGHT result in a minimal cost differential between the two sanctions or an actual net cost benefit to the death penalty, depending upon how many LWOP cases are plea bargained and how many death penalty cases result in a death sentence.
 
3) FCC economist Dr. Paul Zimmerman finds that executions result in a huge cost benefit to society. "Specifically, it is estimated that each state execution deters somewhere between 3 and 25 murders per year (14 being the average). Assuming that the value of human life is approximately $5 million {i.e. the average of the range estimates provided by Viscussi (1993)}, our estimates imply that society avoids losing approximately $70 million per year on average at the current rate of execution all else equal." The study used state level data from 1978 to 1997 for all 50 states (excluding Washington D.C.). (1)
 
That is a cost benefit of $70 million per execution.  15 additional recent studies, inclusive of their defenses,  support the deterrent effect. 
 
No cost study has included such calculations.
 
Although we find it inappropriate to put a dollar value on life, evidently this is not uncommon for economists, insurers, etc.
 
We know that living murderers are infinitely more likely to harm and murder, again, than are executed murderers. There is no doubt that executions do save innocent lives. What value do you put on the lives saved? Certainly not less than $5 million.
 
4) a) Some studies compare the cost of a death penalty case, including pre trial, trial, appeals and incarceration, to only the cost of incarceration for 40 years, excluding all trial costs and appeals, for a life sentence. The much cited Texas "study" does this.  Hardly an apples to apples cost comparison.
       b) The pure deception in some cost "studies" is overt. It has been claimed that it costs $3.2 million/execution in Florida. That "study" decided to add the cost of the entire death penalty system in Florida ($57 million), which included all of the death penalty cases and dividing that number by only the number of executions (18). One could just have easily stated that the cost of the estimated 200 death row inmates was $285,000 per case.
 
5) There is no reason for death penalty appeals to take longer than 7 years. All death penalty appeals, direct and writ, should travel through the process concurrently, thereby giving every appellate issue 7 years of consideration through both state and federal courts. There is no need for endless repetition and delay. This would result in a reduction in both adjudication and incarceration costs.
 
Judges may be the most serious roadblock in timely resolution. They can and do hold up cases, inexcusably, for long periods of time.  Texas, which leads the nation in executions, by far, takes over 10 years, on average, to execute murderers. However, the state and federal courts, for that jurisdiction,  handle many cases. Texas has the second lowest rate of the courts overturning death penalty cases. Could every other jurisdiction process appeals in 7-10 years. Of course, if the justices would allow it.
 
Justice
6) The main reason sentences are given is because jurors find that it is the most just punishment available. No state, concerned with justice, will base a decision on cost alone. If they did, all cases would be plea bargained and every crime would have a probation option.
 
1). "State Executions, Deterrence and the Incidence of Murder", Paul R. Zimmerman (zimmy@att.net), March 3. 2003, Social Science Research Network, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID354680_code021216500.pdf?abstractid=354680
 
copyright 2003-2008 Dudley Sharp
Permission for distribution of this document, in whole or in part,  is approved with proper attribution.
 
Dudley Sharp, Justice Matters
e-mail  sharpjfa@aol.com,  713-622-5491,
Houston, Texas
 
Mr. Sharp has appeared on ABC, BBC, CBS, CNN, C-SPAN, FOX, NBC, NPR, PBS , VOA and many other TV and radio networks, on such programs as Nightline, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, The O'Reilly Factor, etc., has been quoted in newspapers throughout the world and is a published author.
 
A former opponent of capital punishment, he has written and granted interviews about, testified on and debated the subject of the death penalty, extensively and internationally.

dudleysharp said...

And Amnesty Intl is horrible in their lack of accuracy regarding the US death penalty.

Maybe 25 actual innocents have been identified and released from US death row

and . . .

The Death Penalty Provides More Protection for Innocents
Dudley Sharp, Justice Matters, contact info below
 
Often, the death penalty dialogue gravitates to the subject of innocents at risk of execution. Seldom is a more common problem reviewed. That is, how innocents are more at risk without the death penalty.
 
To state the blatantly clear, living murderers, in prison, after release or escape, are much more likely to harm and murder, again, than are executed murderers.
 
Although an obvious truism, it is surprising how often  folks overlook the enhanced incapacitation benefits of the death penalty over incarceration.
 
No knowledgeable and honest party questions that the death penalty has the most extensive due process protections in US criminal law.
 
Therefore, actual innocents are more likely to be sentenced to life imprisonment and more likely to die in prison serving under that sentence, that it is that an actual innocent will be executed.
 
That is. logically, conclusive.
 
16 recent studies, inclusive of their defenses, find for death penalty deterrence.
 
A surprise? No.
 
Life is preferred over death. Death is feared more than life.
 
Some believe that all studies with contrary findings negate those 16 studies. They don't. Studies which don't find for deterrence don't say no one is deterred, but that they couldn't measure those deterred.
 
What prospect of a negative outcome doesn't deter some? There isn't one . . . although committed anti death penalty folk may say the death penalty is the only one.
 
However, the premier anti death penalty scholar accepts it as a given that the death penalty is a deterrent, but does not believe it to be a greater deterrent than a life sentence. Yet, the evidence is compelling and un refuted that death is feared more than life.
 
Some death penalty opponents argue against death penalty deterrence, stating that it's a harsher penalty to be locked up without any possibility of getting out.
 
Reality paints a very different picture.
 
What percentage of capital murderers seek a plea bargain to a death sentence? Zero or close to it. They prefer long term imprisonment.
 
What percentage of convicted capital murderers argue for execution in the penalty phase of their capital trial? Zero or close to it. They prefer long term imprisonment.
 
What percentage of death row inmates waive their appeals and speed up the execution process? Nearly zero. They prefer long term imprisonment.
 
This is not, even remotely, in dispute.
 
Life is preferred over death. Death is feared more than life.
 
Furthermore, history tells us that lifers have many ways to get out: Pardon, commutation, escape, clerical error, change in the law, etc.
 
In choosing to end the death penalty, or in choosing not implement it, some have chosen to spare murderers at the cost of sacrificing more innocent lives.
 
Furthermore, possibly we have sentenced 25 actually innocent people to death since 1973, or 0.3% of those so sentenced. Those have all been released upon post conviction review. The anti death penalty claims, that the numbers are significantly higher, are a fraud, easily discoverable by fact checking.
 
The innocents deception of death penalty opponents has been getting exposure for many years. Even the behemoth of anti death penalty newspapers, The New York Times,  has recognized that deception.
 
To be sure, 30 or 40 categorically innocent people have been released from death row . . . (1) This when death penalty opponents were claiming the release of 119 "innocents" from death row. Death penalty opponents never required actual innocence in order for cases to be added to their "exonerated" or "innocents" list. They simply invented their own definitions for exonerated and innocent and deceptively shoe horned large numbers of inmates into those definitions - something easily discovered with fact checking.
 
There is no proof of an innocent executed in the US, at least since 1900.
 
If we accept that the best predictor of future performance is past performance, we can, reasonably, conclude that the DNA cases will be excluded prior to trial, and that for the next 8000 death sentences, that we will experience a 99.8% accuracy rate in actual guilt convictions. This improved accuracy rate does not include the many additional safeguards that have been added to the system, over and above DNA testing.
 
Of all the government programs in the world, that put innocents at risk, is there one with a safer record and with greater protections than the US death penalty?
 
Unlikely.
 
Full report -All Innocence Issues: The Death Penalty, upon request.
 
Full report - The Death Penalty as a Deterrent, upon request
 
(1) The Death of Innocents: A Reasonable Doubt,
New York Times Book Review, p 29, 1/23/05, Adam Liptak,
national legal correspondent for The NY Times

copyright 2007-2008, Dudley Sharp
Permission for distribution of this document, in whole or in part,  is approved with proper attribution.
 
Dudley Sharp, Justice Matters
e-mail sharpjfa@aol.com 713-622-5491,
Houston, Texas
 
Mr. Sharp has appeared on ABC, BBC, CBS, CNN, C-SPAN, FOX, NBC, NPR, PBS, VOA and many other TV and radio networks, on such programs as Nightline, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, The O'Reilly Factor, etc., has been quoted in newspapers throughout the world and is a published author.
 
A former opponent of capital punishment, he has written and granted interviews about, testified on and debated the subject of the death penalty, extensively and internationally.
 
Pro death penalty sites 

http://homicidesurvivors.com/categories/Dudley%20Sharp%20-%20Justice%20Matters.aspx

www.dpinfo.com
www.cjlf.org/deathpenalty/DPinformation.htm
www.clarkprosecutor.org/html/links/dplinks.htmwww.coastda.com/archives.html see Death Penalty
www.lexingtonprosecutor.com/death_penalty_debate.htm
www.prodeathpenalty.com
http://yesdeathpenalty.googlepages.com/home2 (Sweden)
www.wesleylowe.com/cp.html